This is not the ideal post conditions to write – its 2am and I am getting this done before hitting the road tomorrow. I am also attempting to combine two very different topics in one go…ah…always seek the impossible.
certainty equivalence – what’s that? well…its an economic concept used in the calculation of costs and benefits of a project (say, the preservation of a wetland…) to try to put a number to the value of a benefit/cost in light of the uncertainty surrounding it, by reducing the value in light of this uncertainty.
Why do I bother mentioning this? Because its the sort of concepts I’m encountering in my studies of natural resource and environmental economics. And would you believe, shock horror, that yes we talk about climate change…and greater shock horror..my lecturer (a director for a large non-government organisation in NZ working throughout the developing world, and a well-respected expert witness in the environmental court of NZ) has no qualms about telling us – “We don’t know…” As a humanity, we just don’t know what we’ve gotten ourselves into. We don’t know what it will cost in the future – the uncertainty is something that cannot ever be tamed by any ‘scientific evidence’.
Don’t get me wrong – the scientific research is vital, crucial – without reservation it is an absolute necessity. But do not be fooled into thinking that someone, somewhere has got it sussed – or more to the point, that anyone ever will. How are we to know what will be the tastes and preferences of tomorrow? The needs of tomorrow? resources are only resources because we find use in them – what is of use today, may be useless tomorrow. What is useless today, may be fundamental in the future. Where do you begin to answer the question of what, how and how much to preserve?
The awarding of the Peace Prize to Al Gore is acting as a message of the times, not just a recognition of Al Gore (however worthy or not he may be) – climate change as a challenge has taken hold and although his film may have contained a number of errors, that’s not to say they were entirely on the wrong track. For example, the mention of Pacific atolls and evacuation of these low-lying islands – it may not be some mass evacuation, but I can personally attest to knowing a woman from Kiribati (Ki-ri-bas) who is in the thick of this very issue – it is very real, and the reality is that it is those most vulnerable who are hit harder, if not first. Environmental refugees will soon (if not already…its 2am, forgive me for not checking my sources…see the Environmental Film Festival 2007…) outnumber refugees of political or other unrest.
I don’t agree with all that Al Gore stands for – and it does disturb me that someone of his calibre would take such a laissez-faire and simplistic view to ‘population control’ (the term alone makes me shudder…). But put aside all his potential biases and possible ‘ulterior motives’ and you have an issue that we cannot ignore. It is not just the hyped up media frenzy blowing a lot of hot air (scuse the pun)…though the often partial way in which they blow that air can be highly frustrating…there is really an issue to be dealt with and it needs to start in the homes, yes, but also in the communities – in council offices, government departments, corporate headquarters…
Right…done with that…and to finish off (in case you made it this far…) I was struck by this article on the BBC site (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7028449.stm) – the first ever rest home for former prostitutes, in Mexico. What struck me even more was the photo of one of the former ‘leisure ladies’ in her room, with her picture of Our Lady of Guadalupe and some rosary beads hanging over the top. Christ mixed with these folk – and what may strike us as odd (a prostitute with rosary beads) – is not at all strange in a deeply Catholic country like Mexico…hmm…we can learn a lot from that…
Ok…time for bed.







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